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We look
here at four main targets when analyzing a game:
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The trends or statistics |
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The “spot” |
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The value |
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And finally, relevant information,
and special factors |
The
“trend” is basically
a tendency for one team to do some something with
another over time. Trends, however, can be very tricky
so you have to really watch out basing your decision
solely, and entirely on this single factor. Just because a team has hammered
another team, over and over, this feat won’t necessarily apply to
every situation. For example, let’s say Team A has won 5
straight games over Team B, but Team B now has a new
coach involved. A lot of those old trends may just not
apply now! Yes, this is an obvious situation, but a
handicapper needs to look a bit deeper at these kind of situations, and this certainly illustrates the
point. Obviously, statistics, both current and some
past, figure in, and are vital in figuring an outcome.
In addition, trends such as playing surface, history
etc. are important as well.
So what’s
the “spot”? Well,
this is the situation, or the timing of the event, that
may factor in to the conclusion, and outcome. A lot of
times, this is information not figured in to any
software program, and this may be the one factor separating
any given handicapper from the next. Let's take this example: a
prior week underdog is coming off a monumental upset as
a favorite the following week, and they are in one
hand, now in a mode known as the classic "let-down". On the other
hand, perhaps this big win can spring them to new
heights, with new-found momentum? This
has to be analyzed by a case by case basis. So, let’s
use a real life situation such as this one stated,
actually played out in the 2007 season of
college football. Colorado, under Coach Hawkins had a
monumental upset of mega power Oklahoma, 27-24, in week
6 of 2007, but were now traveling to Baylor, in which
this surely qualified as that classic "let-down" spot for the Buffs. Baylor came in as 9 point underdogs, playing at home.
This situation is definitely a “spot” to wager against
Colorado, as the game with Oklahoma easily could've
"spent" the Buffalo's. But when analyzing this
game involving Baylor, you have to ask yourself if Coach
Hawkins has actually turned a corner with his program,
and perhaps the Sooner's game has sprung the Buff's to
indeed, "new heights"? But remember, this is only one factor in
this game. You have to weigh this
criteria with many, many other factors, the most important
being that Baylor is simply no match talent wise with
the Buffs! This tidbit is of course vital, because a soft
Buff team, emotionally spent, could still in fact "roll" over a weaker
program, like the Bears had, simply on talent alone, and not a
whole lot else! So,
were the Bears the play of the day, or were the stronger Buffs
the way to go, to continue their surge? Well, Baylor certainly had a decent offense,
but their defense couldn’t stop a grocery cart, and the
result was a complete wipeout for Colorado, despite the
chance of that huge let-down. Baylor got absolutely crushed, so the
“spot”, like in this example, turned out to be a
non-factor, with the other criteria weighing much more
heavily. One additional item of note: "The spot" can definitely be
off-set however by the amount of the spread factored in.
What good is figuring this important piece of
information, if the sports book has already calculated
that in to the total spread? This of course, now brings us to
“value”? So…what
exactly is value? Well, each team can be figured in any
kind of system, with a certain rating, like our
well-known power rating.
Every handicapper has his own value system. What I look
for in this “value” criteria, is the relationship of the
two teams involved, the strengths, the weakness, as well as a
dive in to lot of
statistics, plus adjustments for the success patterns of the
two teams, and figuring in to the whole mix the "spot"
and other informational factors. This "value", so to speak, can be
then equated in comparison with a handicappers own personal
assessment, like a power rating, to what the spread
might be by the
lines-makers.
As far as
contacts, and other information factors, let’s just
leave it at that; that we dig deep for a result, and we
try and bring you the best results possible. Having
information and contacts in various locations surely
helps one in arriving at an expected outcome, and this
can help verify sometimes what we’re analyzing on paper.
Every
game is figured by the experts of the casino houses, in
reaction to market demand, and they don’t miss a thing
and that….. You can bank on! However, sometimes, those
reactions by the public are displaced. We look to find
those inequities in the market place. When all four of
the above criteria can be met positively, rest assured, we call for
a top rating, although just not very common.
Those are
the games you have to pounce on!
EZ SPORTSWINNERS/Editor
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